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The human factor

作者:淳于指劈    发布时间:2019-03-08 05:15:07    

By Fred Pearce in Buenos Aires A LEADING team of climate modellers has strengthened its claim that humans have contributed to global warming. The Hadley Centre, part of Britain’s Meteorological Office, says new research shows that industrial greenhouse gases have contributed significantly to warming over the past 50 years. This, says Geoff Jenkins, head of the centre’s climate prediction programme, is a much tougher statement on the issue than its previous ones, which talked of “the balance of probability”. The new confidence stems from an unpublished study by Jenkins’s colleague Simon Tett. The study, recently submitted to Nature, uses data for the first time from a host of climatic variables such as greenhouse gases from human sources and solar activity peaks, which tend to warm the planet, and volcanic activity and sulphur emissions, which cool it. When the data are put into a model for temperature changes over the past century, it produces the clearest correlation yet with records of what actually happened. In particular, the new model successfully predicts the previously mysterious warming that took place in the 1940s. “The warm temperatures in that decade seem to have been due to high solar activity and low volcanic activity,” says Jenkins. “This greatly increases our confidence in predictions of the future.” The model suggests that natural forces caused most climate change until about 50 years ago, when human inputs became more important. More on these topics:

 

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